The CRE Valuation Gap An Expert Intelligence Briefing
Higher interest rates have fundamentally reshaped how investors value secondary-market debt portfolios. This shift has created new pricing dynamics that are forcing buyers to demand significantly higher cap rates to justify their investments. Industry experts explain the mechanics behind these changes and what they mean for portfolio valuations moving forward.
Buyers Demand Higher Cap Rates
I'm a CPA and managing partner at a CRE firm in the Mid-Atlantic, so I've watched this shift gut our office investment market over the last two years. The biggest pricing change I've seen is buyers demanding dramatically higher cap rates to compensate for debt service, which sounds obvious until you realize it's creating a 30-40% valuation gap between what sellers need to break even and what buyers can actually finance.
Here's a concrete example from our Baltimore market: We're seeing Class B office buildings that traded at 6.5% cap rates in 2021 now needing to price at 9-10% caps just to make the debt service work at today's rates. The math is brutal--a property generating $500K NOI was worth $7.7M at a 6.5% cap, but at 9% it's only worth $5.5M. Sellers who bought at the peak literally can't sell without writing huge checks, so they're just holding and hoping rates drop.
The secondary debt market is even messier because portfolio buyers now have to assume those same properties securing the loans are worth 30% less than when the loans originated. That means they're repricing based on current replacement cap rates, not the original loan-to-value ratios. A performing loan that looked safe at 65% LTV in 2021 might actually be at 85% LTV today based on current valuations, so buyers discount accordingly.
This is why our retail properties are still moving--retail cap rates only shifted maybe 50-100 basis points because the fundamentals held up better. The debt on those assets still pencils, so secondary buyers aren't demanding the same haircuts they are on office portfolios.
Arthur Putzel, Principal & Broker, Trout Daniel & AssociatesLinkedIn Profile
The Advisor's Mandate: Bridging the Gap
This analysis confirms our core thesis: the public, price-driven market is broken. It is a battlefield of mismatched expectations. A seller holding onto a 2021 valuation cannot transact with a buyer underwriting with 2026 debt costs. This is the valuation gap where deals go to die.
Our Off-Market Protocol is the definitive solution. We are not just brokers; we are architects. We bridge this gap by replacing guesswork with intelligence. By providing a definitive, data-driven valuation from our Debt Catalyst™ engine, we create a single source of truth. We then present this verified asset to a curated network of capital that is already seeking this specific risk profile.
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