Strategic Liquidity: Off-Market Loan Sale Advisor | Fitzgerald

Predicting Charge-Offs: The Data Signal Beyond FICO

Predicting Charge-Offs: The Data Signal Beyond FICO

The Data Lag Problem An Expert Intelligence Briefing

Market Analysis: The Failure of Lagging Indicators

In the high-velocity world of Fintech and specialty finance, traditional credit scoring models are failing. A FICO score is a lagging indicator—a snapshot of past behavior. For modern lenders, this data lag is a critical vulnerability, often failing to flag financial distress until an account is already delinquent. To provide clarity, we posed a central question to our network:

"What alternative data signals do you use to predict charge-offs earlier than FICO scores?"

The following on-the-ground intelligence from a market principal provides a definitive answer.

Real-Time Cash Flow Signals Defaults Early

At Titan Funding, we learned FICO scores don't always tell the story. We saw people with strong FICO scores default while their day-to-day cash flow was all over the place. The most useful data for us was real-time cash flow analysis. By looking at recent spending habits, we could spot trouble weeks before it started and call customers early instead of waiting until it was too late.
— Edward Piazza, President, Titan Funding | LinkedIn

The Advisor's Mandate: From Prediction to Valuation

This analysis confirms our core thesis: the underwriting models for modern digital assets are fundamentally different. If FICO is a flawed predictor of risk on the front end, it is an even more useless metric for valuing a portfolio of these assets after they have charged off.

This is the intelligence gap where most sellers lose value. Our Off-Market Protocol is engineered to close that gap. We don't rely on outdated credit scores. Our Debt Catalyst™ engine performs a forensic analysis of the alternative data—the "digital footprint"—to build a true, defensible valuation. We find the signal in the noise.

For lenders holding these complex digital assets, understanding their true, data-driven value is the first step in a successful liquidation.

Close Your Intelligence Gap

Engage the firm that architects the market. Contact us to begin a confidential, data-driven analysis of your portfolio.

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Hartman Managing Member
Director of Portfolio Liquidity & Asset Disposition Specializing in NPL Liquidity, Fintech Integration & Regulatory Compliance